In world politics, events that test the foundations of the status quo rarely, but from time to time, occur. Now we get to such point with the war in Ukraine.

President Trump is making clear and unambiguous efforts to gain acceptance for a bipolar world order both at home and on the international stage. Many do not understand what is happening, but in essence, events are taking place in accordance with the historical world order outlined to King Nebuchadnezzar. While one leg of the colossus standing on clay feet represents the successor states of the Western Roman Empire, and the other the Eastern Roman Empire, it is currently unclear where the centers of gravity of the two geopolitical domains are. In the Western Hemisphere, it seemed clear so far that this was Washington, and the other Western countries would join the Washington-Brussels axis. This has now been put to the test in the case of Ukraine. Whether the axis will withstand the test will soon be decided at the meeting of European political leaders in London.

The center of power of the Eastern Hemisphere is the Moscow-Beijing axis. While Russia has a unique military strike potential, China’s economic power and superiority are indisputable.

However, there are further contradictions in the current situation.

Behind the Great Russian imperial ambitions that deny national, cultural, and linguistic identity to Ukrainians, in addition to pan-Slavic sentimental motives, there are also rational economic interests, since the predominantly Russian-populated eastern and southern Ukrainian territories are also the country’s industrial centers.

Ukraine, with its measures against the Russian population (language law, isolation of the Donbas region, and then military action against separatism), essentially gave Russia a reason/pretext – interpret it as you wish – to start a war.

The majority of American opinion leaders, although unspoken, feel and are aware of the parallels between Ukraine’s measures against the Russian minority and the Texas Revolution and War of Independence. In the 1830s, the state of Texas, which was part of Mexico, rebelled against the Mexican government led by President Santa Anna because it was the only Mexican state with a predominantly Protestant and Anglo-Saxon population. Texas resisted Mexican assimilation and Counter-Reformation pressure and the completely alien Hispanic political culture and legal system (or rather the lack thereof). Although the Texans were defeated at El Alamo in the first stage, Big Brother, the other US states, rushed to their aid and inflicted a devastating defeat on Mexico. President Santa Ana, who was captured by the Americans, was only saved by signing the peace treaty that secured Texas’ secession and independence. The Texas Free State later joined the US.

The Russians did not care much about international law, and immediately set the goal of annexing the disputed Russian-majority territories to Russia and are implementing it.

Europe’s attitude is ambivalent. After World War II, the Western region slowly but surely understood that the Irish were not English, the Catalans and Basques were not Spanish, the Flemish in Belgium were not French, and vice versa, and accordingly, ethnic rights were expanded in both cultural and political terms. In the Eastern half of Europe, this liberal shift in mindset has not yet taken place and is only taking place slowly. The Ukrainian government’s measures with the introduction of the language law prohibiting the medium and higher education in other languages than Ukrainian clearly go against this European process. At the same time, it is also obvious that official Russian thinking does not recognize Ukrainians as an independent Slavic entity either.

In addition, there is Putin’s Russia’s aggressive actions against political opposition both at home – and this is a real cause for concern in the West – as well as abroad. The murder of Litvinenko, the attempted assassination of Skripal, the liquidation of a Chechen political refugee on German soil, the blow-up of the Czech armament and ammunitions depot are red lines in the eyes of the defenders of the European democratic rule of law, which must be protected by all means.

Now the question is what will be the conditions for making peace?

What position will America take? Will the EU and the United Kingdom persist in their efforts to contain Russia?

The events of the coming days and weeks may determine the future of our continent and world politics for many years to come.

Author:

István Szabadföldi
Senior expert
NATO – EU Defence Policy